Gartner recently released the Q4 2008 and full 2008 smartphone sales numbers.  As someone that is just now getting back into programming, and specifically mobile programming, these numbers are a huge deal.

2008 was a good year for smartphones as they saw a 13.9% growth from 2007.  I’m sure that Apple deserves a lot of credit here for getting some dumbphone (no insult intended) users into the smartphone arena.  

On an average week, how many Nokia commercials do you see?  How many Windows Mobile commercials do you see? 

• Nokia = –6.1% growth while losing 11.1% of their market share.  They are still the leaders, but they are losing ground.
• Windows Mobile = 12.2% growth while losing 0.2% market share.  They barely did better than breaking even.

Now, on an average week, how many iPhone commercials do you see?  How many Blackberry commercials do you see?  How many AT&T commercials do you see promoting an iPhone or Blackberry?  How many Verizon commercials do you see promoting Blackberries, especially the Storm?

• Mac OS X (iPhone) = 245.7% growth while gaining 5.5% market share.  Both figures are incredible when you look a the numbers of the competition.  App Store fiascos and all…Apple is making its mark.
• Research In Motion (Blackberry) = 96.7% growth while gaining 7% market share.  This shocked me the most.  I hate the Blackberry OS (go ahead and flame all you want).  I come from a Windows Mobile and Palm OS background and I just find Blackberries dreadful to use, but I am certainly in the minority.  I am, however, excited to see if RIM is going to step up to the plate and blow everyone away with Blackberry OS 5 now that they have gotten in the touchscreen and 3G game.

So…do you think advertising helps?  Sure, there are tons of factors from usability to available applications to consider, but I really think that the fact that Microsoft and the Windows Mobile device makers do not advertise is hurting.  I think that the fact that Nokia barely has a smartphone presence in the US is hurting them.  I hope the botched Nokia 5800 launch taught them a lesson and they will start taking the US seriously. 

As a developer, you have to look at the raw numbers, but you also have to consider how a company is growing their platform and what steps they are making to stay competitive. 

What will 2009 hold for the smartphone market?

1. I am looking for Nokia to make a splash in the US this year…and it is about time.
2. Hopefully Apple will add some features to the iPhone 3.0 that have been standard on other smartphones for years.  I still think that iPhone 1.0 should have just been considered a beta test and we should be on iPhone 2.0 with their next hardware revision, but whatever.
3. RIM looks to be pushing some more 3G phones and the Storm seems to be doing well so far for what is essentially their beta touchscreen phone. 
4. I am expecting Windows Mobile/Windows Phone to hold about even and maybe lose a little bit of market share this year.  They have a large business presence due to the fact that they have the best Exchange Activesync support in the mobile market, so I do not see their business sales dropping that much, even to RIM. 
5. I expect that the Pre will make a little bit of a splash with their initial release, and start really making some waves once they release a GSM model (or anything not tied to Sprint).  This is the platform I am most excited about from a developer’s standpoint.
6. I did not talk about Android much because much like iPhone 1.0, I think the G1 is the Android beta phone.  I expect a lot more out of Android this year and I think they are going to start making trouble for the other platforms now that paid apps are now available (mostly) to the general public.  I can’t wait to see what other form factors we will see running Android.

What are your predictions for the smartphone arena this year?  Share them in the comments.

[Source: cnet news]

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