I think that’s a great post and very well-argued. I disagree with tons of it, but that’s what makes topics like this one fun – there’s lot to chew on and discuss / debate.

Some places I disagree:
– I think UMPCs are viable and are receiving some good reaction from early adopters. The concept is still a good one, particularly the size somewhere between PDA and laptop.
– Don’t think Tablet PCs are down for the count yet, although they certainly haven’t been a raging success.
– I really believe Zune has a *very* high chance of succeeding. Will it overtake Ipods in the short term – almost certainly No. But from what I can gather, MS is not expecting that and are full committed to a longer term effort in this area. I believe that the fact that MS has people from their Xbox team working on this immediately bolsters its chances – they have a proven track record of success with a mass market consumer product in a not hugely different area. I also think that whenever MS really shifts its attention to a specific area, they do not often fail.

I think all of this will play out to be very, very interesting – but I wouldn’t bet against Zune …

Don’t get me wrong … the UMPC is a viable product, specifically Asia, Europe and with people like you and me. But everytime a great idea like this has come out someone (cough cough manufacturers) bork the whole thing and it ends up falling flat on it’s face. The tablet is my example for this, because if you look back the UMPC and the Tablet PC are very, very similar concepts and the manufacturers were the eventual downfall of the device.

Electrovaya had the idea for battery life right for a tablet (18+ hours) but the device was purely ugly. Acer had the sizing right (and eventually Fujitsu with the P1510) but they couldn’t match in battery life and the Acer C110 that I had just felt slow. Don’t even get me started on Toshiba and the bigger is better nonsense. All in all the manufacturers couldn’t bring to the shelf what Microsoft had envisioned and so they are right (for)-now a failure. UMPC (IMHO) is the same sort of thing. MS has this Niche market they think is available, but none of the manufacturers can come close to the price point, nor can the make the devices last as long as they need to and bring the power they need. Team that with the US’s Hummer attitudes and they will be a pretty big No-Go.

Zune –

Yes it’s a good thing that the Xbox folks are working with the Zune folks. They have a good chance of helping make the device popular, but look at the amount of competition Zune has vs. what the Xbox has. The Xbox had to fight it out against Nintendo (was never really a contender) and Sony. Sony (again IMHO) is still at the forefront because of huge franchise games like Grand Tourismo. Xbox had Halo (2) … and that’s been pretty much it. All the other really good games have been multi-platform. So yes, the Xbox folks are going to help, but they aren’t used to the level of competition that the Zune is up against.

Think about all the portable media players (yea I argued just the iPod) but think about it…

1. MP3 players – Samsung, Apple, Sony, and the list goes on and on, then include memory sticks with mp3 capability, pda’s, smartphones, laptops, car stereo’s, dvd players, etc etc etc… Everything and the toaster can play mp3 (and other formats). The Zune may be more portable than my toaster, but competition is competition.

2. Video – Ok, the market for portable video is a lot smaller, but again the arguement can be made that Zune is again up against a much bigger competition base. Granted the iPod may be the biggest competitor, but there’s also some other companies making “iPod like” mobile video players, along with devices like PDA’s and smartphones.

3. Multipurpose – I’m back to my really big arguement here. Microsoft has a pre-built user base in the form of PDA users. Why not convert that user base into a mobile entertainment and productivity user base? Why re-invent the wheel? The PDA could be the do-all end all device and Apple can’t touch it with a 10 foot pole right now. The market already exists, but isn’t that big anymore because we got sick of being handed the same old device with 16MB more memory and a slighly more shiny surface. Give us the power in our PDA’s, the storage space, bring out the services, and tie them together. Within a year the iPod would be a stain in the past.

The concept of if you can’t beat them join them doesn’t work in big business anymore. If you can’t beat them, don’t even try. Give up go home and come back with something we haven’t seen before. The consumer market needs an electric shock (not in a Dell battery kind of way) but a shock in the way we think about mobility and functionality. There’s nothing new out there… there’s just new names for old concepts.

** This doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate the improved capabilities of devices that come out … like increased mega-pixels or vga screens for my pda, it just means that we need something new, something that brings it all together and actually brings true mobility + capability into our lives.